The Rollover Begins
June stats signal a slower summer market
June marked the first real sign of seasonal slowdown in the Toronto real estate market, with multiple indicators posting their first month-over-month declines of the year. The average sale price slipped to $925,000, a 0.5% drop from May and the first negative price movement since January. Transaction volume also dipped, falling 6.4% compared to the previous month. That breaks a five-month streak of gains. Even active listings edged down slightly by 1.6%, which is the first monthly decline since December. Still, inventory remains historically elevated and the number of homes for sale remains near three-decade highs. This combination of lower prices, fewer sales, and marginally lower supply suggests that the market is settling into its typical summer pattern of lower activity.
This kind of summer slowdown is normal in many ways. As vacations, long weekends, and warm weather take priority, many buyers press pause on their home search. Our spring market this year had little urgency to begin with, and even that is now fading. Serious intent is being replaced by a more casual kind of browsing. The result is a softer and more hesitant market.
For sellers, this seasonal dip in demand can create real challenges. Homes that hit the market in late June or July will likely face thinner traffic and longer days on market, even if pricing looks accurate compared to comparable sales data of the past 90 days. Sellers who bought their next property first may now find themselves squeezed as they are forced to sell into a market which is shifting. At the same time, many sellers who are not under pressure to move may simply pull their listings and wait for fall, when buyer activity typically rebounds. The summer becomes a period of quiet reshuffling rather than meaningful price discovery.
Pricing into the summer needs to be sharp and aggressive to motivate the few buyers who are still active. Many agents will suggest waiting until fall, and in some cases, that may be the right move. But if a property must sell now, this is not the time to hold out for a marginally better price or risk over-negotiating a decent offer. Buyers are finicky in this environment and may simply walk away rather than engage in back-and-forth. The opportunity to close can disappear quickly if sellers are not calibrated to current sentiment.
For buyers, summer can be a decent time to find a deal. That said, the quality of listings also tends to drop off. Many of the best homes were listed and sold earlier in the year, and what remains on the market is often the inventory that was overpriced or has issues that make it harder to sell. So while summer prices typically dip, it is often a reflection of the quality of available properties rather than a market-wide discount.
It’s also worth noting that summer is not the time to take a strong signal on the health of the market. We can predict with some confidence that the next few months of data will reflect a slowing market, which aligns with typical seasonal behavior and does not represent a shift in trend.
The long-term trends I have been tracking remain intact. Prices have stayed within a relatively tight range, with a bias toward weakness. Sales volumes are still well below long-term norms, largely because entire segments of buyers have exited the market. At the same time, inventory continues to build as some owners are forced to deleverage and investors actively try to exit properties that no longer align with their financial goals. All of these dynamics are unfolding within a predictable seasonal framework. Summer does not change the underlying story, it just quiets it for a while.